The Line Lab: Deploy & Destroy

You ever wonder what makes the perfect forward line combination? Here at Sedated Sleeper Picks we have spent some late nights in the lab dissecting the anatomy of these linemates. The left winger is the heart, pumping pucks on net and spreading offense(oxygen) to the whole team. The centre is the brain, processing reads at lightning-fast speeds, making feeds and doing dirty deeds. The right winger is typically the least glamorous line mate. Some refer to him as the “grinder” or the “mucker”. I prefer to think of him as the appendix – you hardly notice he’s there until he flares up and threatens to take down the whole line with an attack of appendicitis. Combine all these parts with a coach who makes sure his dawgs eat and you have the perfect cocktail – the give and go mojito.

The Doc is in the house and in all seriousness let’s take a very early look at some of the most dominant lines through 10 days into the season. All ownership rates are from Yahoo. For those newer to expected goals % (xGoals%) – it’s simply a ratio of a line’s expected goals for to their expected goals against. A higher % means the line is generating more high-quality scoring chances than their opponent. Mathematically speaking, xG% = Expected Goals For/(Sum of both team’s expected goals).

DUCHENE – JOHNSTON – SEGUIN

This line comes in second with an xGoals% of 90. They have had success in the past together, but are not currently listed together on Dallas’ most recent line combos (Duchene is listed as DTD). Duchene is 82% rostered on Yahoo & Johnston is at 96%. Seguin however is only 32% owned. Not to mention he has 3 points through 4 games and has seen greater than 15 minutes in TOI. He could be a sneaky add to round out the bottom of your roster, appreciating his best days are likely behind him.

PROTAS – McMICHAEL – WILSON

This trifecta is 5^th in the league with an xG% of 83.3. Wilson sits at 89% rostered, Protas at 79%, & McMichael at only 25% rostered. You likely wont find those first 2 linemates on your waiver wire. McMichael presents an interesting “buy low” opportunity. While Wilson and Protas have 7 & 6 points McMikey only has 1 point. He certainly had a bit of a breakout party last season with 57 points and he is still relatively young at 24. While Wilson enjoys time on PP1, McMichael and Protas both play on PP2. You have to think McMikey will start to produce with this kind of deployment. Get him before he wakes up and everyone rushes to the wire.

BLAKE – STANKOVEN – SVECHNIKOV

This is where things could get a bit more interesting in that every line member may not be universally owned. Svechnikov is owned by the majority of managers at 72%. However, Stankoven is 37% owned and Jackson Blake is only at 10%. This could be a significant opportunity to add Blake (or even Stankoven) in what looks to be a very cohesive unit to start the season. They sit in 7^th with an xGoals% of 82.6. Obviously you need to somewhat temper expectations in Carolina as Rod the Bod is not afraid to put his lines in a blender. He is also known to spread the ice time wealth amongst all 4 of his forward lines. I look at it this way though – even through line changes these guys will play with talented linemates and D-men. They are almost guaranteed to get decent ice time (maybe not 20+ mins) and perhaps there is something to be said about being more rested or refreshed as a result of the somewhat lower ice time. This will hopefully allow them to maintain their (hopefully higher) level of performance over the course of the season.

Update: Svech was moved to a different line as of their last game, but Stankoven and Blake remain together with Taylor Hall flanking them on the left side. I’m still high on Stankoven and Blake despite the linemate change. Also quick shoutout to the Ehlers – Aho – Jarvis line. They’re all widely owned but in a whooping 41.6 mins together already they have a xGoals% of 78.4%. Looks like they may be a staple on the Hurricanes lineup card for Roddy.

PERRON – COZENS – BATHERSON

This Ottawa trio has only spent 17 mins together. I will remind you that Batherson did not play in the Sens first 3 games to start the year. They have an xGoals% of 75, good for 22^nd in the league. Batherson is 88% rostered, but Cozens and Perron sit at only 46 and 2%, respectively. Obviously, Cozens is the more desirable of the two here, given his younger age and deployment on the 1^st power play. He will be harder to come by though, especially considering he has 4 points in 5 games. I will also point out his significant value in bangers leagues as he has already racked up 19 hits. He does a but of everything as seen with his 62.3% faceoff %. This is quickly turning into a Dylan Cozens appreciation post, but we gotta get that ownership percentage higher than 46. The easier of the 2 to acquire, David Perron, is a wily vet. Don’t sleep on him in those deeper leagues (16+ teams). He only has 1 point thus far but does see time on PP2 as well.

GAUTHIER – MCTAVISH – SENNECKE

One of the league’s hottest line this young trio sure is proving the future is bright in Anaheim. They are 51^st in the league with an xGoals% of 68.8. They have spent 53! minutes together already. I want to point out this is propelled by a great expected goals for of 4.4 but their expected goals against is 2 (a bit high). If they can shore up their defence this is going to be a great line to watch for a long time. Mason Mac-Tee is the most rostered of the linemates at 62%. Gauthier follows at 46% and then Sennecke at 17% (was only at 2% a few days ago). Now there were questions as to whether Sennecke would stick with the big club or be sent back to the Oshawa Generals in the Show-HL. It seems as though GM Pat Verbeek confirmed a week ago that Sennecke would get the “Leo Carlsson load management plan”. Carlsson has started his 2nd year in the league on a strong note, so who am I to question the plan. While it is annoying, he is guaranteed to miss likely 12+ games I feel confident he will have a chance to be impactful when he plays. If you have any question as to whether you should roster him check out his goal (& assist) the other night against the Sharks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pt4dfdaGEAk

He shows great body position and great hands/feet on his power play goal. He is only 19 years old and I imagine he will be aging like a fine bottle of Caymus. He could be a league winner/difference maker in deeper leagues. I would not be surprised if all of this line’s ownership rates increase if they are able to keep up this pace.

Real linemates know each other’s habits better than most married couples. Who curls high on the cycle? Who loves a good backdoor feed? Who heads to the bench to avoid that minus after a half-hearted backcheck? You don’t need a stat line — you need a full psychiatric profile. Line chemistry is your fantasy hockey team’s most important vital sign. Ignore it and your squad will flatline. Embrace it and you will have a squad that eats, sleeps, and breathes points.

Doc out. Stay sleepy zzz