PP Merchants vs Even Strength Kings

Good day fantasy hockey folks. Today we will look at who’s doing all the heavy lifting (even strength point leaders) and who’s a little more reliant on the long arm of the Zebras for their production. Not that we don’t love PP points, but over-reliance on them is not usually a recipe for fantasy success. Power play production can be volatile for a myriad of reasons, including: role change/demotion, reliance on penalties being called for potential points, and the volatility of the PP unit (ie, every PP will experience a cold streak at some point). Furthermore, PP production can hide or mask a lot of poor even strength play. Typically, these players may have a lower floor and their production can be more sporadic. Now I’m not so naïve to think that these sorts of players aren’t useful, but overreliance on too many of these players on your roster can be detrimental. Let’s pull the curtain back on these merchants and give our flowers to the even-strength kings.

PP Merchants – These are players with a greater than 50% share of their total point production from PP points.

Dylan Cozens – 31 points, 18PPP (58% of points on PP). Cozens is a useful player, albeit one who has been a bit streaky this year. Part of that is his reliance on PP points. He’s obviously a banger league hero (123 hits, 16^th league wide), but if your league doesn’t value that kind of production (ie, you are a more scoring based format) he would be someone I try to potentially move before the trade deadline. Perhaps to a Sens fan or someone who knows that he’s a valuable real life player, but less so in primarily scoring based leagues.

Pavel Dorofeyev – 30 points, 17 PPP (57% of points on PP). Dorofeyev is currently listed on line 4 and played a measly 11.5 minutes his last game. Hopefully that’s short lived. The interesting thing with Dorofeyev is during his breakout last year, only 17 of his 52 points came on the power play (33%), a much more palatable proportion. So, there’s at least some hope that he can start to pick it up at even strength. It may be more difficult to do so when Colton Sissons is your centreman though.

Ryan Nugent Hopkins – 35 points, 19 PPP (54% of points on PP). RNH is the guy I’m definitely not worried about amongst the PP merchants. He plays on PP1 and on Line 1 with McDaddy and Zach “BrokerHymaninMakar”. If you can somehow convince RNH’s manager to trade him based on his overreliance on power play production, more power to ya.

Vince Dunn – 25 points, 14 PPP (56% of points on PP). The only D-man listed among the merchants, Dunny is warming up of late (5 points in his last 3 games). I’m less concerned about my defenseman being Merchants, especially one who was drafted after pick 150 in many leagues. Would we like to see some more even strength production? Absolutely, especially to help that -12 rating. But there’s no action required here (unlike Cozens and Dorofeyev who I would be trying to trade)

Even Strength Kings – Look at these as some potential trade targets who may offer more sustainable and consistent production in comparison to the PP Merchants.

Nate Dawg MacKinnon – 78 points, 20 PPP (26% of points on PP). This guy deserves the Hart trophy. Best player in the league on the best team in the league.

Martin Necas – 55 points, 10 PPP (18% of points on PP). Who would have guessed trading Mikko Rantanen would work out so well for the Avs? Not I. But here is Necas shoving it down my throat with his proficient play at even strength. He’s unsurprisingly on pace for a new career high in points.

Mark Scheifele – 52 points, 10 PPP (19% of points on PP). Hard to see him not make the Olympic roster after the great season he’s having. The Jets maybe a mess as a team, but it’s definitely not Scheif’s fault.

Matthew Knies – 38 points, 4 PPP (11% of points on PP). Now this is a guy who I would be trying to aggressively acquire. It’s due to his great even strength production. He has 3.27 even-strength points/60, 10^th league-wide. However, he is also listed on PP1 with a few stars (Matthews, Nylander). I certainly think he will experience some positive regression in his power play point production playing with the big dawgs in TO

Alex Tuch – 35 points, 3 PPP (9% of points on PP). Tuch is the jack of all fantasy trades, with the exception of PP production. 35 points, 105 SOG, 43 hits, 43 PIM, 47 blocks, 3PPP, 2SHP. He has actually made some kind of contribution in all statistical categories. A fantasy hockey unicorn of sorts, I suppose.

Oliver Kapanen – 26 points, 1 PPP (4% of points on PP). Your current NHL rookie goal leader, with 15 (only 1 on the PP). He is not currently listed on any of Montreal’s power play units. He is on line 2, centering Slafkovsky and the Demi-God. He also plays on PK1. At only 9% rostered on Yahoo, he’s someone the deep leaguers should be pouncing on. Those managers in more standard sized formats should also add him to their watchlist, or even add to your roster if you should have an open spot. He’s heating up with 5 points in his last 3 games.

In closing, power play points are a vital stat to the success of any fantasy hockey team. However, it needs to be paired with solid even strength point production which should be the foundation of your team. If your “star” player needs 3 penalties called, PP1 time, and a positive PDO just to put up a single point with no peripherals, it certainly seems like he needs a lot of things to break right for him. Fantasy hockey leagues are typically won by managers that minimize variability and receive consistent, stable production. In other words, try to avoid/trade/minimize the Merchants on your squad.