The Goaltender Volatility Index: Quantifying Chaos in the Crease

Goalies are the most volatile fantasy hockey beasts known to man. If you can successfully tame one of these dragons, your likelihood of fantasy glory increases exponentially. Be wary though – these guys are liable to turn around and breathe fire on your face and your ratios (you gotta be careful with Charizards).

If only there was some sort of metric to help us navigate these treacherous waters…I’m pleased to present the Goaltender Volatility Index (GVI). This tool will hopefully allow you to separate the fantasy goalie signal from the noise. The GVI is a mix of stats, structure, and psychology designed to rate each NHL starter from 1 (Hellebuyck cemented to a boulder – that’s stable) to 10 (Nedeljkovic with a Ouija board on Friday the 13^th – that’s terrifying).

The GVI is based on:

·       Historical SV% variance

·       Team Defense (including shots against & HD chances)

·       Workload predictability

·       Injury history/durability history

·       Psychology (Goalie Voodoo Factor [GVF])

Here are my GVI rankings for each of the 32 teams. Remember the number isn’t just about who is good or bad. It’s about who is stable enough that you may be able to sleep at night. Use this chart as a cheat sheet or a therapy session, you choose.

TEAM	GOALIE	GVI	ANALYSIS
WPG	Conor Hellebuyck	1	He’s as stable as they come. Great goalie on a good team who has no playing time concerns
DAL	Jake Oettenger	2	Real upside on a good squad. Occasional nights where the puck sneaks through him
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	2	Veteran on the back to back Stanley Cup champs. Has had down seasons so there’s some pause for concern.
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	3	Capable of brilliance, hopefully the Rangers can ice a half decent defence in front of him
TBL	Andrei Vasilevsky	3	Still can be elite when healthy. Good team but some durability concerns at this stage. Maybe he won’t get back to the 2020 Vasy?
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	4	Capable but can be prone to streaky play. Big contract and little competition ensures playing time. Wallstedt could be a threat in the future
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	4	Good when healthy but durability concerns paired with a capable backup and an average defence keeps the ceiling somewhat limited
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	4	Great goalie with a questionable team in front of him. No playing time competition at present. Patty Roy has played head games with him in the past though
VAN	Thatcher Demko	4	Vezina caliber when healthy, but Lankinen’s presence will cap the ceiling. Canucks look to be a team on the playoff bubble
VGK	Adin Hill	5	Capable of being good or below average. Vegas will ice a good squad but there are durability and consistency issues here
LAK	Darcy Kuemper	5	Relatively consistent veteran on a good team. Some durability and playing time concerns, albeit minor
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	5	Solid veteran on what should be a playoff team. His backup (Allen) is capable of going on hot streaks. Marky has also spent some time on IR in the past
WSH	Logan Thompson	5	Was great for most of last year. Can he do it again? Some competition from Lindgren, but Washington should be playoff bound again
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	5	Stoli the goalie was good when he played last year. He missed a significant chunk of time, however. Woll remains out so playing time is secure
NSH	Juuse Saros	5	The Preds had a terrible 24/25 season. Look for Saros to bounce back. He’s been a workhorse throughout his career
EDM	Stewart Skinner	6	Stewy has already had some miscues this year. Meanwhile Pickard seems to be serviceable every time he plays. Oilers are a wagon but a platoon is a real concern.
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	6	J-Sway is looking a lot like the guy he was before the 24/25 season. Could the Bruins be better than everyone predicted?
CGY	Dustin Wolf	6	Wolf is incredible and will keep the Flames more competitive than they want to be. However, a rebuild will happen this year and the team in front of him is likely to get worse
MTL	Sam Montembeault	6	Monty had over 60 starts last year on an up & coming Habs team. If Sam & the team can continue to improve, look for him to move up this list
CAR	Kotchetkov/Andersen	6	Great team in Carolina. I have no idea who will be between the pipes on a given night. Both tenders have some injury history (Kotch on IR rn) but will benefit from Rod the Bod’s system. Platoon City
SEA	Joey Daccord	6	Seattle is looking to rebound after a down year. Daccord showed further growth and he’ll likely claim the lion’s share of the starts. Grubauer is ultimate goalie voodoo – he could usurp Daccord or be in the minors. Grubby does have injury history as well
OTT	Linus Ullmark	6	The Sens will be competitive and Ullmark is capable when healthy. He has had some durability issues in his career, so look for Levi to get some runway
STL	Jordan Binnington	7	The Blues looked invigorated when Jim Monty came in as coach last year. If they can return to form Binnington could be valuable. Streaky, significant voodoo and Hofer all contribute to playing time concerns
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	7	Vej will have his reign in the Mammoth net again this year. Hopefully that’s behind a playoff-bound team. Things are trending up in Utah
DET	John Gibson	7	Gibby may finally be on a playoff bound team? Does he still have it? The answer to both of those questions is uncertain. If you look at the team below it would appear his situation hasn’t changed much
ANA	Lukas Dostal	7	Dostal will probably get the majority of the starts in the crease for the Ducks, but Mrazek is a capable veteran. If the Ducks (specifically their team defense) can improve, their may be value here. Or not
CBJ	Greaves/Merzlikins	7	Jet Greaves would certainly appear to be the goalie of the future for the Jackets, but is he the goalie of this year? Elvis has not left the building and he is supreme voodoo. My gut tells me this will be a 50/50 timeshare
PHI	Sam Ersson	8	Ersson will likely get the majority of the starts here with Vladar backing him up. Philly has some new players and a new coach. Hopefully this results in better structure in front of him. I’m not so sure
CHI	Spencer Knight	8	The Hawks will likely improve upon last year’s dismal record. Hopefully Knight will be a big reason why this team will be one to watch in years to come. Not this year though. Expect some good nights with some shaky performances sprinkled in
PIT	Silovs/Jarry	8	I have no idea who will prevail in this starters battle. Silovs & Jarry will both look to gain some consistency. That will be difficult with this team in front of them I’ll take a pass on this one
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	8	Askarov is an up and coming netminder who will likely get the majority of the starts in San Jose. The defense in front of him is likely to be porous. There will be some good nights. There will likely be some barn burners mixed in as well though
BUF	Alex Lyon	9	The Sabres will hopefully improve this year. However their season has not started well and being without their starter (UPL) has certainly not helped. Avoid this situation until signs of a turn around are present

If fantasy hockey is a hospital, goaltending is the psych ward. Every season, half the managers lose their minds chasing a “hot hand,” while the other half stare at their 0.863 save percentage wondering why they got so banged up before the draft.

The Goaltender Volatility Index won’t stop the madness — but it helps you anticipate it. The goal isn’t to eliminate risk; it’s to budget for it. Pair a low-GVI anchor with a high-upside maniac and pray to the PDO gods.

Because at the end of the day, every goalie — even the Hellebuycks of the world — is just one bad rebound away from a trip to Shutter Island,

So draft wisely. Stream ruthlessly. Stay Sleepy zzz

– Dr. Deep Sleeper