Draft Analysis: Post-Mortem Examination

Anyone ever look back at the results of your draft? I’m sure some, if not most of us will look back at it at some point, but have you ever done a post-mortem examination? I thought what better time to take a look given we don’t have much to discuss given the Olympic break. In this article I’ll be grading who the best and worst picks are from select rounds of my draft. It’s a 12 team head-to-head re-draft league with scoring of G/A/PPP/SHP/+-/SOG/W/GAA/SV%/SO. I’ve included their current ranking in my league in parentheses. Let’s dive in.

An old adage in drafting is “you can’t win your league on draft day, but you can lose it.” The worst pick of round 1 would have to be Connor Hellebuyck (231). Now, I don’t like to draft a goalie in round 1, but based off last year’s results (47W, 2.00 GAA, 0.925 SV%, and 8 SOs) this wasn’t such a bad pick at the time. But as I’m sure we can all agree goaltenders are fickle. I don’t like to invest so highly in a player that can only contribute in 4 of 10 categories. But I’m sure Helly was part of many championship winning squads in 24/25. Hindsight is 20/20 though. This year has been much different, with Helly missing about a month with injury and toiling to 13 wins, 2.79 GAA, and 0.900 SV%. The Jets as a whole have underachieved in comparison to last year.  

The best pick of the 1^st round would go to either Connor McDavid (2) or Nate MacKinnon (1). No surprises there.

On to the 2^nd round, where the best selection appears to be Andrei Vasilevsky (7). With 27 wins, 2.11 GAA, & 0.919 SV% he has enjoyed a great year thus far, despite missing 7 games in December. Honourable mention goes to Evan Bouchard (22) who has turned around a ghastly start to the year to post 15G, 48A, 22PPP, +11, & 161SOG.

Now a common theme among the underperforming picks is typically injury. Jack Hughes (180) and the entire New Jersey Devils team have had a very underwhelming season. I have no clue what happened at Cut Steakhouse in Chicago, but he missed a little over a month with that hand injury. He unfortunately has missed the last 3 games with a lower body injury. He has been pictured with Tate McRae of late though, so silver linings. Despite all this he is producing at a point per game clip (36 points in 36 GP).

For the 3^rd round, the best pick is undoubtedly Jason Robertson. Somehow, he’s ranked 4^th in my league, top 5 in goals league wide and the brain trust of USA hockey doesn’t think that would be useful at the upcoming Olympics? Only time will tell, I guess. He has had a stellar season, averaging almost 20 minutes TOI and racking up 32G, 34A, +20, 27PPP and 205 SOG (5^th in the league).

For the worst pick in this round I think I’ll give the cake to Sergei Bobrovsky (404). Now the 21 wins are nice, but the ratios aren’t pretty for a goalie drafted in the 3^rd round (3.11 GAA & 0.871 SV%). He’s managed 3 donuts at least. Obviously, the Panthers don’t care so long as they make it to the playoffs once again (Let's hope they don't). But I’m sure the manager would take a mulligan on this pick. Dishonourable mention goes to JT Miller (181). The Rangers have had a tough season, that’s only gotten worse since losing stud goalie Igor Shesterkin (56). Captain Hardo, known for calling out his teammates despite his lacklustre backchecking efforts, has had an underwhelming year. 14G, 22A isn’t terrible through 47 games. The -22 and only 107 SOG are certainly disappointing though. Not enough to ruin your chances this year, but a bit less than you expected from your 3^rd round pick.

Onto round 4 where there could arguably be a tie for best pick between Ilya Sorokin (9) & Martin Necas (17). Necas is currently out with a lower body injury but has enjoyed a great year (22G/40A/+35/124 SOG). And it’s not like he’s a PP merchant with only 11 of his 62 points (17.7%) coming with the man advantage. Hopefully his injury won’t stop him from representing Czechia at the Olympics. Sorokin is ranked highly in my league, likely on the strength of his league leading 6 shutouts. He has 20 wins, a 2.44 GAA, & 0.916 SV%. Either way, these picks are great return on value for a 4^th round investment. Honourable mention goes to both Matt Boldy (14) & Cole Caufield (13), who both have 32 goals at the Olympic break.

The worst pick of the round has to be Victor Hedman (586). Now obviously a big part for Hedman’s down year is injury, as he just returned from a 22-game absence. It would seem that he has been usurped by Darren Raddysh (35) for top D responsibilities in “Champa Bay” as PK Subban uttered during the Stadium Series game. Injury and a coming out party have likely relegated Hedman to PP2 from here on out it would appear. He has 13 apples on the year and has yet to tickle the twine.

The 5^th round is where we see a real league winning pick. Taken 49^th overall, Macklin Celebrini (6) has well outperformed this draft slot. He sits 6^th overall in my league rankings on the strength of 28G, 53A, +10, 24PPP, & 190 SOG. He’s gonna be a perennial top 5 fantasy pick, maybe even top 3. He is a modern-day Crosby, truly elevating the play of his linemates. Shoutout to this manager who paired Macklin with Conor Bedard (76) at the turn of the 4^th and 5^th rounds. Bedsy would be ranked much higher if not for a 12-game injury absence.

There is no glaring “worst” pick of the round, but in the spirit of this article we must pick one. I will give the dishonour to Nico Hischier (101). As mentioned earlier, the Devils have had a difficult year on the whole. Nico the Toblerone has 19G, 23A, -10, 14 PPP, & 151 SOG. Definitely not a bad year (save for the +/-), but otherwise on par with performances of years past.

The 6^th round is upon us. AKA, the goalie round where 7 of 12 picks were goaltenders. It’s not surprising that the best/worst picks of this round were ‘tenders. Logan Thompson (36) is by far the best pick in this round and it’s not even close. He’s having a tremendous season, with 19W, 2.45 GAA, 0.912 SV%, & 2 SOs. You gotta believe he’s the starter for the Canadian Olympic team. Or at least he should be if it was based solely on this season’s performance.

There are a few candidates for worst pick of this round, but we will focus on Adin Hill (510) & Anthony Stolarz (560). Durability has been a concern for these goalies, both this year and in their respective careers. Hill has 4 W, 3.27 GAA, and a 0.870 SV%. Stolarz sits with 7 W, a 3.55 GAA, and a 0.882 SV%. The goalie run in this round definitely forced some hands at the draft table. Again, injury has affected their performance. They do say the best ability is “availability”.